Kenya's weather agency forecasts above-average November and December rains

The Kenya Meteorological Service expects above-average rainfall across much of the country in November and December and has warned of flooding and disease risks.

What happened

The Kenya Meteorological Service issued a monthly forecast on November 2 saying most parts of the country were expected to receive above-average rainfall in November and December [2]. Acting director Edward Muriuki warned that the increased rainfall could cause flooding, damage roads and raise the risk of diseases such as malaria, cholera and typhoid [2]. A weekly outlook followed, forecasting rain over parts of several counties between November 3 and 10, including Nairobi [2].

Why Kenyans are searching for it

The sources do not say why interest in the agency is rising. They show that the agency has issued forecasts and warnings for the coming two months. A Daily Nation explainer states that current rains are part of El Niño and will get heavier [1], but the material available is only the headline and summary, so the reasoning is not set out. The Star's report does not mention El Niño [2]. An NPR item is headlined 'A Green Army is out to thwart El Niño flooding' [3], but the extract does not say where this takes place, so it cannot be linked to Kenya from these sources.

Key facts

• Above-average rainfall is forecast for much of the country in November and December, according to the monthly forecast issued on November 2 [2].
• Much of Kenya received below-average to near-average rainfall in October, although some areas recorded significant amounts [2].
• The highest October monthly total was 264.4mm, recorded at an automatic weather station at Ng'iya Primary School in Siaya [2].
• Some stations in Marsabit, Garissa, Mandera, Kisii, Kisumu and Lamu recorded rainfall above their usual October amounts [2].
• Muriuki said November is an important month in the October-November-December short rains season because rainfall supports farming, replenishes water resources and sustains livelihoods [2].
• Rainfall distribution will vary across the country, and agricultural regions and parts of northern Kenya are expected to be affected [2].
• The sources name the agency in two ways: the Kenya Meteorological Service [2] and the Kenya Meteorological Service Authority [2].

What to watch

Residents should watch for updates from the Kenya Meteorological Service, particularly on the rainfall forecast for Nairobi and on flood warnings. Two sources point in the same direction on heavier rain: the monthly forecast predicts above-average rainfall [2], and the Daily Nation headline says current rains will get heavier [1]. The sources do not give timings beyond the November 3 to 10 weekly outlook, so the duration and intensity of rainfall in later weeks remain unclear.

Sources

1. [1] Explainer: Yes, current rains are part of El Nino and will get heavier - Daily Nation
2. [2] Heavy rains to lash several counties as Met warns of flooding - The Star, Kenya
3. [3] A 'Green Army' is out to thwart El Niño flooding - NPR

Compiled by the NairobiCity trend desk from the sources above.